UFC Live 4: Marquardt vs. Story – Preview & Picks

Your resident guru is looking to get back on track after my Lebron James 4^th quarter like performance at the Strikeforce event last Saturday night where I went 0-1 with a horrendous KJ Noons pick.  Well I’ve dusted myself off and am ready to get back to my winning ways with the UFC Live 4 event this coming Sunday June 26 at the Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh, PA.  This card is headlined by a welterweight fight between Rick “The Horror” Story and Nate the “The Great” Marquardt which should be an exciting fight.  There are some attractive plays on the card, certainly many more then on the Strikeforce card last weekend, so yours truly is looking to get my winning percentage back up over 70% for the year.  Currently I stand at 31-13-1 for a 69% clip on the year so let’s get into breaking down the fights on the main card and washing that bad taste out of my mouth from the Noons disaster:

1)       Matt “Meathead” Mitrione vs. Christian Morecraft – I admit that I’ve been critical of Mitrione in the past but to his credit it’s clear he has worked diligently to improve his skill level and it was apparent in his striking during his last fight, a 1^st round TKO of Tim Hague.  The former NFL player has come a long way since his stint on the Ultimate Fighter reality show and is clearly being groomed by the UFC as a fighter that could move into the middle to perhaps upper echelon of heavyweights.  He certainly has the raw power and good athleticism for a 265lb man and couple that with the fast improvement of his striking technique, particularly his leg kicks, and his potential is plain to see.  The one major obstacle standing in his way is his age.  He will turn 33 in a few weeks so father time is not on his side and with only 4 professional fights (4-0) under his belt it’s going to be a race against time to see if he can acquire enough refined skills and fight experience to actualize all his potential before his natural athletic skills start to deteriorate.  If he stays injury free he has a chance and it appears UFC management is going to continue to give him favorable matchups to advance his career as they’re doing in this fight against Morecraft.  I’m looking forward to see how much he has progressed since that impressive TKO of Hague back in January.

Christian Morecraft is making his 3^rd appearance in the octagon and is coming off a submission win over Sean McCorkle back in March.  His first foray into the UFC wasn’t nearly as successful as he was KO’d by Stefan Struve at UFC 117.  Morecraft does sport a 7-1 professional record coming into this fight and has shown some aptitude on both his feet (with 4 TKO/KO wins) and on the ground (3 submission wins) so he can be comfortable no matter where the fight ends up but it would be in his best interest to get Mitrione to the ground as quickly as possible.  He will be the best grappler that Mitrione has fought up to this point and nobody has forced Mitrione to work from his back in any of his 4 fights so it would be in Morecraft’s best interest to see just how well versed Mitrione is from that position.  If he stands and trades with Mitrione he stands little more than a puncher’s chance and will most likely get picked apart. 

Pick – Mitrione via 2^nd round TKO.  Mitrione’s take down defense will be good enough to keep the fight standing where his rapidly improving striking technique will be the difference.

Handicapping Play – Mitrione -280.  This is a favorable match up for “Meathead” and the price isn’t out of control, however if it climbs to over -325 I would stay away. 

2)       Matt “The Immortal” Brown vs. John “Doomsday” Howard – A matchup where both fighters desperately need a win to get their careers back on track and stay in the UFC.  Matt Brown comes into the fight having lost 3 straight, all via submission, with his last win coming in November 2009.  With a career professional record of 11-10 he is the consummate journeyman fighter that will compete hard in every fight and under the right conditions against the right opponent can be dangerous.  His inability to defend submissions has been his downfall throughout his career.  Despite recording 5 of his 11 wins via submission, which one would think would prepare him to defend against submission attempts; he has been submitted in 8 of his 10 career losses.  He has shown the ability to consistently win fights against mediocre to average competition but anytime he has tried to move up the chain against better fighters he has been soundly beaten. 

“Doomsday” Howard was on a roll from 2008 through the first half of 2010 winning 7 fights in a row including his first 4 in the UFC.  He started generating buzz as a fast rising potential contender and then got stepped up in class where he lost his last two fights in hard fought battles against Jake Ellenberger and Thiago Alves, both established upper echelon fighters in the division.  That has sent Howard back to the drawing board and how he finds himself in this matchup against Brown.  Howard is athletic and explosive with solid striking and grappling.  He has 6 of his 14 career wins via submission but the last one was back in 2007 so he’d better dust off those submission skills for this fight because they will come in quite handy.  “Doomsday” has the better skill set of the two and has certainly been in the octagon with the better competition and again this is a smart move by the UFC to get a once up and coming star back on track with a favorable match up against a journeyman fighter. 

Pick – Howard via 2^nd round submission.  Howard certainly has the edge in athleticism and he will use that to put Brown on his back and work for his first submission win in 4 years. 

Handicapping Play – Howard -260.  Like the Mitrione pick I think this is a solid match up for Howard and the price isn’t exorbitant but again don’t pay over -325.

3)      Cheick Kongo vs. Pat “HD” Barry – The best pure kickboxing match up the UFC could possibly make in their heavyweight division.  Kongo is a pure specimen when you look at him, 230lbs of pure ripped muscle, and has a perfect striker’s frame at 6’4 with long limbs giving him reach and powerful kicks.  He is a devastating striker and arguably the best pure kickboxer in the UFC heavyweight division.  His lack of any grappling skill and take down defense have been the only things holding him back against the very top of the division and cost him dearly in his two latest losses to Frank Mir and Cain Velasquez back in 2009.  Those obstacles won’t be a concern in this fight as Barry has an equally non-existent ground game that will pose no threat to Kongo. 

Pat Barry is a highly skilled kickboxer with the most devastating leg kicks in the sport at the moment but he is a confusing fighter to figure out.  There was the puzzling loss to an over the hill Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic in June of last year where Barry seemed to lose more from idol worship than anything else.  I know he injured his hand and foot in the fight but “Cro Cop” hasn’t been nothing but a shell of his former self for the last 4 years and clearly wanted no part of exchanging with Barry in that fight yet he still resigned himself to the loss.  Even his last fight, a unanimous decision win over “The Mexicutioner” Joey Beltran, was confusing and disappointing.  Barry was so clearly the superior striker yet he consistently let Beltran dictate the pace and push him up against the cage and turn it into a brawl and Barry seemed content to just let it happen.  I don’t know if it’s a problem with strategy, cardio, or having that killer instinct or maybe a combination of both but for the level of striker he is he shouldn’t be having such pedestrian performances. 

Pick – Kongo via 2^nd round TKO.  Barry has never been stopped by a TKO/KO in his 8 MMA fights but he has never fought a striker on Kongo’s level.  The shorter Barry, 5’11 to Kong’s 6’4, will have a tough time getting inside that reach all night and Kongo will make him pay and could finish him with some vicious ground and pound if he stuns him. 

Handicapping Play – Kongo -200.  My favorite play of the night.  Good price and attractive match up for Kongo. 

4)      Rick “The Horror” Story vs. Nate “The Great” Marquardt – Rick Story is back in the ring quickly after the biggest win of his career over Thiago Alves just under a month ago at UFC 130.  A turnaround that quick would usually be a cause for concern but he took very little damage in that fight and seemed in superb cardiovascular shape so he should be able to handle it with little problem.  I had been touting Rick Story as my favorite young fighter in the UFC for about a year before the Alves fight and what do I do?  I pick against him in that fight and he promptly goes out and dominates Alves!  I won’t be making that mistake again.  Story’s powerful wrestling base gives him the flexibility to dictate where his fights take place and coupled with is surprising striking and dirty boxing has made “The Horror” a nightmare for opponents during his current six fight winning streak. 

Marquardt is making his debut at welterweight after making the drop from a long career as a top contender at middleweight.  He has a ton of skill with very good striking and an excellent submission game that has helped him compile a 31-10-2 professional record.  He will have the striking advantage in this fight against Story if he can keep the fight at a distance but if Story can close the distance and turn it into dirty boxing brawl then that advantage disappears.  If there has been once style that Marquardt has struggled with it has been strong wrestlers that could consistently put him on his back and control him from top position.  It was the deciding factor in his losses to Yushin Okami and Chael Sonnen as Marquardt could not get off his back in either of those fights and lost both by unanimous decision.  He faces that same challenge in this fight against another powerful wrestler in Story.  The other factor to consider is how a muscular fighter like Marquardt, who never fought with any excess fat, will handle a 15lbs weight cut the first time.  It could severely hamper his cardio endurance as the fight wears on especially against a fighter like Story. 

Pick – Story via unanimous decision.  If Story fights a smart fight and uses his wrestling to take Marquardt down and control him for most of the fight and not try to stand and trade strikes with him he should grind out a solid decision victory. 

Handicapping Play – None.  The fight is almost a toss-up on the boards right now with Story -130 but with the fast turnaround for Story and Marquardt’s skill level there are too many wild card factors to make a solid play.    

The three picks on the main card again are: Mitrione -280, Howard -260, and Kongo -200.  I don’t have any plays on the preliminary card but there are some really interesting match ups including Tyson Griffin against Manny Gamburyan which should be very entertaining fight.  Enjoy the fights and I’ll be back with more picks for UFC 132 next weekend.   

By Jim McClelland.  You can send any comments to jimmymac895@live.com and follow me on twitter @therealMMAguru